The present invention relates to the field of medicine, more particularly to oncology and molecular biology, and can be used for evaluating the risk of breast cancer recurrence after lumpectomy. A method for determining the risk of breast cancer recurrence in a patient is based on carrying out a quantitative assessment of the abundance of mRNA of marker genes, i.e. ELOVL5, IGFBP6 and TXNDC9, in a tumour tissue sample taken from a patient to obtain a recurrence risk value, SR, calculated on the basis of the quantitative assessments of the abundance of the aforementioned genes (a weighted sum of marker gene expression levels), and subsequently predicting the risk of breast cancer recurrence by comparing the resulting figure with predetermined threshold values.