FIELD : medicine.SUBSTANCE : invention relates to medicine, to ophthalmology, and can be used for early prediction of the threshold stage of retinopathy of prematurity (PH) with extremely low body mass (ENMT). To do this, in cord blood, the percentage of CD14+CD64+ monocytes is determined using flow cytometry, the level of IL-6 and IL-4 is determined by enzyme immunoassay, followed by calculating the prognostic index (PI) using PI=-0.138×X1-0.015×X2-3.41×X3+6.19, where : X1 – CD14+CD64+ monocytes, %; X2 – content of IL-6, pg/ml; X3 – content of IL-4, pg/ml; 6.19 – Const. When PI is more than 0, a high risk of the realization of the threshold stage of retinopathy is predicted, while if PI is less than 0, it is concluded that the risk of progression of this pathology is low.EFFECT : use of this method allows to predict the progression of active retinopathy of premature babies with ENMT on the first day of life, providing the possibility of correcting the tactics of premature babies in the nursing stages.1 cl, 4 ex