The invention relates to medicine, in particular to cardiology and nephrology.Summary of the invention consists in that it is conducted the clinical and paraclinical examination, where is estimated the glomerular filtration rate using the MDRD (RFGmdrd) formula, is determined the duration of cardiovascular disease (DBCV), the stress frequency (STRESS) and the presence of vascular accidents in the anamnesis (AVC), is conducted the echocardiographic study with the assessment of the left ventricular dysfunction and the left atrium (AS) diameter, and the discriminant function (F) is calculated by the formula : F = - 11, 352 + 1, 820 ?STRESS + 2, 061 ?AVC + 1, 135 ?RFGmdrd + 0.064 ?AS + 0.035 ?DBCV, in the case when F < 0 is predicted an increased risk of vascular accidents, and F < 0 - a low risk of vascular accidents.