In one form the present invention provides a method, system and computer program product for determining the risk of capital value of a financial instrument falling below a pre-determined ratio of the financial instrument' s property value at sale, the method including : f) obtaining data related to the value of the property, g) determining which of the data fit within predetermined guidelines, and retaining the data, h) grouping the retained data, in accordance with sub-market criteria, i) determining a mid-point value of each of the grouped data, together with corresponding mean, standard deviation and serial correlation values, and determining, relative to the mid-point, mean, standard deviation and serial correlation values, the likelihood the property value will fall below the predetermined ratio. The present invention also provides a method, system and computer program product for assessing whether a property value is likely to fall to a predetermined value. The present invention is applicable to any financial instrument such as, property, shares, etc. against which a financial facility, for example a loan, might be granted and which financial instrument, fluctuates/grows in its value or market price. The present invention, in one form, has been developed for use in the financial sector, particularly in the field of banking, but also has application in mortgage securitisation, mortgage insurance and other areas where the identification and measurement of the probability of capital loss and/or negative equity for residential real estate is important.