A computer model of tax delinquency risk is generated by analyzing historical data, including mortgage loan data, associated with real estate properties that have become property tax delinquent. The model is used to generate property-specific scores representing the likelihood that the corresponding properties will become tax delinquent (absent lender or servicer intervention) within a selected time period, such as six months. The scores may, for example, be used by a mortgage lender or servicer to identify loans/properties for which to take preemptive action to avoid tax delinquency.