An apparatus and method is provided for evaluating default and foreclosure loss risk, both at time zero and for several years into the future, associated with a piece of real property on the basis of factors such as statistical home price trend information for a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in which the real property is located and loan terms. An automated valuation estimate for the property is obtained and compared to the purchase price. A loan-to-value ratio is determined based on automated valuation estimate. A future home price is predicted based on statistical data obtained for a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) in which the real property is located. Based on the future home price and the LTV ratio, a probability that the real property will have negative equity is determined, and a risk score is generated based on the probability. Other features include generating base scores for each of a plurality of future years and obtaining a weighted average of the base scores; adjusting the risk score based on liquidity of real property values for the MSA in which the real property is located; adjusting the risk score based on reliability of data for the real property; adjusting the risk score based on price volatility for the MSA in which the real property is located; and using unemployment data in the MSA for which the real property is located in calculating the risk score.